Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that split the nation and triggered disorder, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly tense and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim this point is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the lack of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or advocates want to engage with the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author supports unification or the status quo. Each writes two articles that aim for impartiality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the rationale against, gathering financial and societal data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," said the writer. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the notion that there might be good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they prefer unification but refuse increased taxation or adopting a new flag to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his era is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, valid points, he commented. "One side will succeed here and the other side will eventually be defeated but each side has possesses valuable insights to learn from the other's positions."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should join the debate, stated O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
