Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency triggered by the announcement of a new comprehensive peace framework for achieving ceasefire appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A Washington representative spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Negotiation and Warfare
The sequence of opposing developments captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are fought: optimistic declarations are delivered from various governments. Significant resources is allocated on containing specific proposals. By night, Moscow forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the main instrument for achieving "resolution".
After-Dark Attacks
As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is able to track rocket firings from enemy soil, a capability afforded by current data. From observation points, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been scrambled to intercept incoming aerial threats roared overhead – sophisticated military planes provided to Ukraine by NATO members.
Shortly after, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons thundered: multiple launches fired to intercept a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely provided by Western nations. Every deployment jolts you unexpectedly, shaking the windows. The brief panic quickly becomes resigned acknowledgment: perhaps the hostile projectile won't cause damage this time, sparing the city from ruin and further power outages.
Continuous Dangers
Soon after, a large-caliber weapon fired at a drone somewhere nearby, part of a rapid response unit – most likely Western-made equipment. Regrettably, the shots failed to hit the hostile drone – it continued its flight toward its objective.
With pauses, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv faced the daybreak reports: multiple fatalities, destruction and utility failures in numerous residences as a result of the evening attack. As customarily, everyone still went about their day – experiencing conflict. But those 24 hours encapsulated Ukraine's essential dependence on external assistance – a reliance that European nations are clearly incapable to replace in the immediate future.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The detailed framework from American leadership provoked deep reactions, debate and serious worry – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and international summits.
Every new approach from American administration unfolds according to the same pattern: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This cycle will, certainly, continue.
Political Considerations
It is convenient to criticize particular leaders of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the whole story. American leadership functions according to a premise understood by experienced diplomats: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have failed to defend militarily. The American government presumes that it is unfeasible to compel Moscow to relinquish the land that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, US leadership does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through diplomacy or military means, from believing that the situation will not change more in its benefit in the near future.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, the Kremlin is convinced that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its partners are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will continue as long as Russia's leader remains highly assured in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still hold out, gradually sacrificing lives and land but averting a total frontline collapse until conditions improve in its favour.
Present Conditions
Objectively, there are no genuine requirements for a truce. Now, personal considerations are coming into play: political desires to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the national cause against any initiative Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their attention does not move to domestic problems. And although their objective will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains quite doubtful that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.
Summary and Prospects
It took a mere seven days to terminate the suggested clauses of the current initiative. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by Washington, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with soothing efforts of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all achieved their purpose.
While new proposals based on old ideas are approaching, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are based on Russian demands and show certain reluctance to change the course of events, if they remain united and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, largely rely on sustained allied backing.
